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2021 Indianapolis 500. May, August...or?

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  • Originally posted by Mikemat5150 View Post

    In my opinion, the decision is going to be driven by how strained the healthcare system is. That would require pulling healthcare professionals from their primary job. These people may also be instrumental in delivering the vaccine.

    I also think the optics of a massive, 250,000 person event is going to get some major backlash no matter what. Something to take into consideration.
    You don't need anywhere near 250k to be a "large event."

    I'm not saying sellout (yet). But, just like last year, this year they can very likely handle 50%, or maybe more.
    No weather forecasts are ever guaranteed, even if confidence level is high. Even a 99% probability will miss 1% of the time. That's the best anybody can do when predicting highly complex events.

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    • Originally posted by Ren Butler View Post

      You don't need anywhere near 250k to be a "large event."

      I'm not saying sellout (yet). But, just like last year, this year they can very likely handle 50%, or maybe more.
      They could not and did not handle 50% last year, this year is hard to predict. I doubt Penske will be looking forward to spending a lot of money to plan an event that may not be possible.

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      • Originally posted by Ren Butler View Post

        You don't need anywhere near 250k to be a "large event."

        I'm not saying sellout (yet). But, just like last year, this year they can very likely handle 50%, or maybe more.
        absolutely correct.

        There is absolutely no reason to not have AT LEAST 50% capacity for this year, if not higher.

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        • Originally posted by Baulz View Post

          They could not and did not handle 50% last year, this year is hard to predict.
          They easily could have handled 50% last year. They weren't allowed to. This year is not at all hard to predict.

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          • I predict that the race could be held in several different months with varying percentages of capacity or no spectators at all. Guaranteed.

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            • Originally posted by CrankShaft View Post

              They easily could have handled 50% last year. They weren't allowed to. This year is not at all hard to predict.
              The danger along with the perception of having 125,000 pack into a stadium even at half capacity was not worth the risk. Boasting of the worlds largest single day sporting event during a pandemic would not have been a good headline for Indycar.

              Let's hope things improve quickly this spring but with the advanced planning required I predict the race will run later in the year with spectators.

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              • I read this morning that Goldman Sachs is predicting half of country will have vaccine by June 1.
                I predict 500 won't go in May 2021...
                "If you go, you can either win or not win. If you don't go for it, you definitely won't win." Jens Voigt

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                • Originally posted by Baulz View Post

                  They could not and did not handle 50% last year, this year is hard to predict. I doubt Penske will be looking forward to spending a lot of money to plan an event that may not be possible.
                  This get to the BUSINESS point I want to re-emphasize: Like most large events, the COST to Penske to run the Indy 500 is ROUGHLY the same whether the place is at 30% of capacity or 100% capacity. Somewhere between those two numbers is break-even, and I would be it is north of 50% capacity.

                  So running the race at 50% capacity likely makes no financial sense. Penske probably needs at least 65% to make money, and 80% to make significant money. The last 15% to 20% on the way to 100% are pure profit. That's the money that keeps the enterprise afloat.

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                  • I know someone who has financial dealings with one of the drivers. They had a meeting today. Supposedly Mr. Penske ain’t changing the date and if it’s 50% that’ll do.
                    "The Internet. Where fools go to feel important" - Sir Charles Barkley

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                    • Originally posted by window View Post
                      I know someone who has financial dealings with one of the drivers. They had a meeting today. Supposedly Mr. Penske ain’t changing the date and if it’s 50% that’ll do.
                      That's probably a tad optimistic but a reasonable place to start as of January. 50% and on the traditional date would be pretty great, all things considered.

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                      • Originally posted by Joeremi View Post

                        That's probably a tad optimistic but a reasonable place to start as of January. 50% and on the traditional date would be pretty great, all things considered.
                        It's not an easy business call. I would likely do the same thing and push for as many innovative ways to increase revenue as possible. But I am optimistic. If all the school kids are in class by April with a good safety regimen in place, I think he'll be OK.

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                        • Originally posted by window View Post
                          I know someone who has financial dealings with one of the drivers. They had a meeting today. Supposedly Mr. Penske ain’t changing the date and if it’s 50% that’ll do.
                          I hope that works out and if so I'll most likely be there.

                          On another note, I look forward to the same couple morons who have gotten every iron-clad guarantee wrong since last March finally getting one right and telling everyone else how smart they are and everyone else should have been listening to them all along.

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                          • Here's a thought: instead of debating this in JANUARY when the vaccines are just being rolled out, why don't we wait a few months and see how the situation plays out. I'm sure that is what the Captain is doing.

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                            • Originally posted by MoparsRule
                              ... have there been any issues at all with outdoor sporting events with socially distanced and masked up crowds as of yet?
                              Hard to say. Those events also involve travel and gathering off-site, some concentration at restrooms and in queues, personnel in the supply chains and logistics personnel behind the scenes, etc. so who knows what part of the 400k were attributable to that part of community spread.

                              Originally posted by MoparsRule
                              moronishness
                              Moronity, maybe?

                              Everything we have done (and not done) so far has got us a cumulative score of 400k. Some things reduce the chance of infection and transmission, and some increase it. Likewise for hospitalization and death. Too many variables and complexity to be precise, like predicting the weather, but we can still make educated differences between the weather in Manitoba and Arizona.

                              Some will argue the economic effects of the measures to get us down to 400k weren't worth it. Others will note those measures kept us down from 2m deaths, so maybe it was. 2m deaths would have had its own longlasting health and economic impacts.

                              I just know if we'd have been more rational about it we'd probably be better off, and that that is a political discussion, ultimately, and not just a partisan one, and not one where either "side" has necessarily occupied the high ground, of facts or morality.

                              That's why we keep kicking the ball of this discussion across the sidelines. It's okay. We can continue this discussion over theere: https://www.trackforum.org/forum/con...rus-ce-edition

                              We also have a thread strictly for the science and logistics of coronavirus, stripped of politics (as much as feasible), in the OT forum.

                              This thread is about the impact of all that on the Indy 500 schedule, so that people interested in exactly that narrow topic don't have to scroll through the politics or the biology.
                              Last edited by doitagain; 01-15-2021, 06:08 AM.
                              There's really no such thing as Gary the Moose, Sybil.

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                              • As someone who is not able to ever attend in person the crowd size makes no difference to me, I just want to see the race run on the traditional date this year.

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