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  • Apples to Oranges?

    Indy 500 proceeding with its plan to run late in August.

    Detroit (and northern suburbs along route) today cancelled outright the annual Woodward Dream Cruise, slated for the third week of August, a huge deal that draws a million, or so they say, probably less, but maybe a total weekend draw, hard to tell.

    Basically lots of Motor City muscle and hot-rod iron cruising Woodward Ave., one of the historically iconic cruising strips in the nation. Word is there will still be huge numbers of renegade cruisers using Woodward just the same. But no corporate exhibits, concessions, etc.

    Organizers made no attempt to limit attendance (it’s a free deal) or to try to mandate social distancing and/or mask wearing. Probably just too big a hassle to try to do so.

    Will IMS get crucified for trying to run the 500 with big numbers of fans, or will it be seen as a smart move, a well-planned attempt at some sort of normalcy?

    If events such as the Dream Cruise and other big-draw events, plus major sports, continue to get cancelled — or go fanless — will IMS be pressured to blow off August and look to October...or next year?

  • #2
    Originally posted by Going Green View Post
    Will IMS get crucified for trying to run the 500 with big numbers of fans, or will it be seen as a smart move, a well-planned attempt at some sort of normalcy?
    Yes.

    Originally posted by Going Green View Post
    If events such as the Dream Cruise and other big-draw events, plus major sports, continue to get cancelled — or go fanless — will IMS be pressured to blow off August and look to October...or next year?
    Robin Miller:

    Asked if there was any kind of drop-dead-date for postponing to October, Penske replied: “No, we’ve committed to have it in August in a rational and safe way."
    A stadium with limited assigned seating and potentially organized ingress/egress is a very different animal than a packed street festival with people constantly milling about.

    Yes, I've seen the pagoda plaza, but even a small area like that can have some controls.
    No weather forecasts are ever guaranteed, even if confidence level is high. Even a 99% probability will miss 1% of the time. That's the best anybody can do when predicting highly complex events.

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    • #3
      Makes sense to me, unless the pressure of currently unknown circumstances gets so stiff it forces a move/delay/cancel.
      I’m getting ready to pull the trigger on keeping four of our six NE Vista Turn tix and letting the other two ride until 2021.
      Hope it works out. Will be anxious to see if they keep the four in our regular seats or bop us around somewhere.

      Comment


      • #4
        Will IMS get crucified for trying to run the 500 with big numbers of fans, or will it be seen as a smart move, a well-planned attempt at some sort of normalcy?
        Those are questions that can only be answered after the 500 is ran. The "good" news is that Indycar is having other races with fans before the 500. If these races go well without any incidents then that would give more reasons to run the 500 with fans but if that's not the case Indycar can always back away from its original decision if wants to.
        "The only good horsepower is usable horsepower.."

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        • #5
          Yes apples to oranges. A more apt comparison for Woodward would be the Boston or New York marathons where the huge crowd lines the streets for miles as the race, or in Detroit, the cruise passes by. It not the runners who are spaced out once the races begin, it's people gathered at whatever mile marker who are waiting to cheer their runner on or at the water stations and the tent at the finish line. And it's not the people in their cars, it's the crowds at this bar or auto parts store that's having a party or are hosting some car club and the people who stand along the route looking for cars they like.

          I'm going to be one of the few who thinks that IMS opens itself up for criticism from all corners not addicted to the 500 if there's a surge in cases and hospitalizations that can be traced to the race. Especially going to 50% attendance when no other sports or entertainment group is even considering anything close to that. Plus coming to the 4th of July Brickyard weened wit no spectators. And here it comes deaf ears. Knowing this weekend, there is no vaccine or easy treatment and won't be in August or October so acting like being outdoors makes it OK or the race fuel will keep people safe is like Ole DW saying there's a vortex that keeps the rain away, Except when it doesn't. They'll have to explain why with the same MEDICAL circumstances they wanted to go to 50% only 7 weeks after being at 0%.
          "You can't arrest those guys, they're folk heroes"
          "They're criminals"
          "Well most folk heroes started out as criminals"

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          • #6
            IMS will also have the benefit of up to 30K attending Bristol middle of next month so that may help with some of the criticism. Will IMS still get crucified, yep, unfortunately. The good thing is Penske is better suited to manage any criticism and collateral damage than if it was still Hulman-George (to be clear, that is not an attempted shot at Hulman-George).

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by Hitokiri View Post
              Those are questions that can only be answered after the 500 is ran.
              People have largely already made up their minds about these things.

              Originally posted by Hitokiri View Post
              The "good" news is that Indycar is having other races with fans before the 500. If these races go well without any incidents then that would give more reasons to run the 500 with fans but if that's not the case Indycar can always back away from its original decision if wants to.
              I guess that depends partly on what "incidents" means.

              But the first race with fans is July 11, and the first race with traditional grandstands similar to IMS (on a much smaller scale) is July 17. By the time we see that fans were infected, and contact tracing is performed to show it specifically occurred at RA or Iowa (if contact tracing is done at all), it will already be early to mid August.

              I doubt IMS backs down from any of this unless Indy/Marion County absolutely shut them down. Even then, expect a legal fight.

              No weather forecasts are ever guaranteed, even if confidence level is high. Even a 99% probability will miss 1% of the time. That's the best anybody can do when predicting highly complex events.

              Comment


              • #8
                Z28, why would you be one of the few if, in fact, a surge in cases and hospitalizations can be traced to the race?

                I would think if that is indeed the case there will be a whole lot of people who will criticize IMS. Maybe you’re just indicating you’re saying it now in anticipation of such a thing, before others chime in similarly.

                It would be like the situation at Harley’s bar in East Lansing where 16 college students who hung out there one night got or were infected, and then by further association, infected 98 others within days, and those — friends, parents, grand-folks — surely passed it on and/or became sick.

                As I’m writing this I just saw the updated map on TV and Indiana was dark red, I guess indicating a steep rise in cases, but don’t quote me as I’m not sure what that exactly means in the scheme of things.

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                • #9
                  Originally posted by Z28 View Post
                  They'll have to explain why with the same MEDICAL circumstances they wanted to go to 50% only 7 weeks after being at 0%.
                  They could have accommodated more than 0% this weekend, and that's not really disputable. It wasn't the inability that stopped them.

                  Anyway, seven weeks is a very long time. It took seven weeks to go from an average of 2 deaths per day to 2,000 deaths per day. It took seven weeks to go from 1,800 deaths per day down to our current 536.

                  In seven weeks, we dropped from 30k cases to 20k cases, and now two weeks later with increased testing, it's close to 40k.

                  All of this has taken course over about 15.5 weeks since the pandemic was declared, and that seems like an eternity ago.
                  No weather forecasts are ever guaranteed, even if confidence level is high. Even a 99% probability will miss 1% of the time. That's the best anybody can do when predicting highly complex events.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Going Green View Post
                    As I’m writing this I just saw the updated map on TV and Indiana was dark red, I guess indicating a steep rise in cases, but don’t quote me as I’m not sure what that exactly means in the scheme of things.
                    Not challenging you in a harsh way because of your admitted uncertainty and your fairness throughout the thread, but I'd like to see exactly what that map indicated, because we are not increasing in cases, despite increased testing. And I will clear up the confusion using hard numbers:

                    https://www.coronavirus.in.gov/

                    Indiana's daily average positives have hovered in a narrow range from 351 to 391 for 20 consecutive days. There's no way that could be a steep rise in cases.

                    Our daily average deaths have declined from 42 on 4/27 to under 10 as early as 6/25.

                    Indiana was hard hit (but not exactly NY or NJ) in the original wave, so maybe we were "red" back then. I saw us in the yellow territory today indicating "steady" cases, well in line with the numbers I just provided. We want to be green (as I believe only two states were), but at least we're not orange or red.
                    No weather forecasts are ever guaranteed, even if confidence level is high. Even a 99% probability will miss 1% of the time. That's the best anybody can do when predicting highly complex events.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Ren Butler View Post
                      But the first race with fans is July 11, and the first race with traditional grandstands similar to IMS (on a much smaller scale) is July 17. By the time we see that fans were infected, and contact tracing is performed to show it specifically occurred at RA or Iowa (if contact tracing is done at all), it will already be early to mid August.
                      It doesn't take that long. For example where I live there were four new cases of COVID last week and with in a few days they traced it to bar in town and that was only with 4 cases. So tracing where a person caught COVID-19 doesn't take a long time.

                      I doubt IMS backs down from any of this unless Indy/Marion County absolutely shut them down. Even then, expect a legal fight.
                      Never know. Could happen but Indiana seems to be one of states that wanted to open as soon as possible. I guess we'll wait and see.
                      "The only good horsepower is usable horsepower.."

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Hitokiri View Post
                        It doesn't take that long. For example where I live there were four new cases of COVID last week and with in a few days they traced it to bar in town and that was only with 4 cases. So tracing where a person caught COVID-19 doesn't take a long time.
                        Thanks, I wasn't aware of that. However, the positive tests would likely come a few days after the actual incident, as you don't instantly register as positive, so it's probably a little longer than you suggest, even if shorter than I suggested.

                        Also, it might take longer for a larger group of fans from a larger area, as you would have at a racing facility.
                        No weather forecasts are ever guaranteed, even if confidence level is high. Even a 99% probability will miss 1% of the time. That's the best anybody can do when predicting highly complex events.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Ren Butler View Post

                          Yes.



                          Robin Miller:



                          A stadium with limited assigned seating and potentially organized ingress/egress is a very different animal than a packed street festival with people constantly milling about.

                          Yes, I've seen the pagoda plaza, but even a small area like that can have some controls.
                          If you attended the F1 races, it's easy to see how they can control the Pagoda Plaza, simply restrict fan access.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Ren, my bad...I saw the map and it was Ohio that was in the red, not Indiana. Noticed my error when the map came on again. Not sure what this map’s color codes were exactly, but an uptick. And there might have been red and then a dark red. But Indiana showed steady with no measurable rise. Hopefully that remains the case as we boogie toward late August. Kept four of our six tickets, rolled the other two into the 2021 500.

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