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  • 2020 Indianapolis 500 Assumptions

    Just pondering...

    If the race is run on its scheduled August date with fans, it will have to be a full open IMS with fans taking individual precautions as they see it.

    There’s no way they can limit attendance because a lottery is unreasonable and logistically a nightmare.

    Also, if it is run as described here and a fan claims fear of Covid as reason not to attend, will IMS refund their ticket price or credit it to next year? Highly doubtful. Use it or lose it will be the rule.

    Now, if they run it without fans, then it’s assumed, obviously, that tickets will be good for the 2021 race. No problem there. IMS certainly won’t go fan-less for the 500 and then tell ticket holders sorry ‘bout that, gotta buy new ducats for next year.

    So I guess it’s this: Just because you bought tickets for the May 500, but now it’s in August or October with fans, and you can’t make it for whatever reason, you’ll lose your investment.

    Folks, with so many usual 500 fans coming from so many different places and with so many individual considerations, these and other questions and concerns will have to be addressed much sooner than later. Yeah, I know IMS knows this better than anyone, but somebody has to start in with the executive decisions and fast.

    We’re two-months out, but time flies. And there seems to be a cootie spike in Indiana, not sure how big or significant that might be. But if the devil is in the details, the uncertainty is in the unknown.

  • #2
    Yeah I'd like to know the plan sooner rather than later, but understand it will take time.
    I want chicken I want liver meow mix meow mix please deliver

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    • #3
      I believe Roger Penske when he says he will not run it without fans. We probably won't hear anything new until after they get the July 4th weekend in.
      Probably means nothing but I did notice they are not selling any more Pit Road Terrace seats the IMS website.

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      • #4
        Yes, perfectly understandable. The reality might be that IMS can’t be concerned with fans’ predicaments. Just too many diverse situations, so they can only deal with the problem of opening it up or not.

        Although not something I’ll have to deal with, I wonder what fans will do who claim they can’t make the changed date(s), or won’t attend because of a legitimate Covid scare, but can’t get a refund or credit for next year’s race. Class-action lawsuit?

        There are many more serious and even tragic consequences re: Covid than an auto race situation. But still, imagine the travel plans, plane reservations, car rentals, lodging, etc., that fans are trying to deal with. Vendors, suppliers, etc., held in limbo.

        At this point I’m betting on a no-fan August 500, with a walk-back from The Captain on having fans. Or no August race and the October date with fans. Hope I’m wrong on August.

        Or how about this: The 500 is run in August...but with 30,000 (just an example, could be up or down) fans. Who gets the nod?

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        • #5
          Originally posted by Going Green View Post
          Also, if it is run as described here and a fan claims fear of Covid as reason not to attend, will IMS refund their ticket price or credit it to next year? Highly doubtful. Use it or lose it will be the rule.
          They might indeed end up not allowing credits/refunds, but why do you say it's highly doubtful?

          Frankly, it sounds like the most reasonable solution of all: Limit the crowd through natural attrition*, and absolve IMS of some of the responsibility for adults making their own decisions.

          * "attrition" could make it sound like I meant death/infection, but I mean attrition of people who just decide not to take whatever minimal risk is present.
          No weather forecasts are ever guaranteed, even if confidence level is high. Even a 99% probability will miss 1% of the time. That's the best anybody can do when predicting highly complex events.

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          • #6
            With a significant degree of uncertainty remaining re: COVID implications, particularly with things starting to re-open in various states, I bet not enough will be known early-to-mid July to inspire enough confidence in Marion Cty (or other authority-having-jurisdiction) to give the green light to run the August date with fans in attendance.

            That stated, if they did run on the August date I'd still show up, but I do expect a date shift to be announced in July which would provide the opportunity for an October event. I'd be happy with that if it were to come to pass, too.

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            • #7
              This is my opinion of course, but a somewhat informed one from the perspective of being a business owner.
              I think it would be reasonable and appropriate to provide for refunds for fans already holding tickets should they decide in advance (say, 30 days in advance for example) to apply for a refund because they will not be attending, and have it be a no-questions-asked policy. This would allow fans unable to attend due to a change in date AND fans unwilling to attend based on the their personal comfort level and risk tolerance surrounding COVID-19 to be accommodated.
              I'd make a projection that they'd see 5% or lower make the refund application.
              The advance notice requirement would be key in my mind - preventing the "oh, looks like it's going to rain on Sunday!" type of non-attendance from getting refunded, but would accommodate those with a legitimate schedule conflict or health concern.

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              • #8
                It's always nice to have informed perspectives like that.

                And I agree with every part of it, except perhaps the <5% part. There are still so many people terrified of this perceived threat, and some of them legitimately because of their advanced age or other issues. There are also a lot of people for whom the rescheduling is a major issue.

                I'd guess closer to 15% would ask for a refund/credit.
                No weather forecasts are ever guaranteed, even if confidence level is high. Even a 99% probability will miss 1% of the time. That's the best anybody can do when predicting highly complex events.

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                • #9
                  Just a wild guess, but I think upwards of 25- 30% won’t attend if the race is held in August. My estimate is not related to the issue of refunds / credits,etc. Between people who are concerned about the virus, and those who would be attending on a once-in-a-lifetime basis ( i.e. people who are non racing fans but were invited through business dealings, with free tickets and meals, etc. ), I’m coming up with 25-30%. I do believe the “non racing fan” presence is more formidable than most people think, as are the population who believe the daily reports made by the pro COVID segment of the media. My estimates are unscientific.

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by CGFRacer View Post
                    This is my opinion of course, but a somewhat informed one from the perspective of being a business owner.
                    I think it would be reasonable and appropriate to provide for refunds for fans already holding tickets should they decide in advance (say, 30 days in advance for example) to apply for a refund because they will not be attending, and have it be a no-questions-asked policy. This would allow fans unable to attend due to a change in date AND fans unwilling to attend based on the their personal comfort level and risk tolerance surrounding COVID-19 to be accommodated.
                    I'd make a projection that they'd see 5% or lower make the refund application.
                    The advance notice requirement would be key in my mind - preventing the "oh, looks like it's going to rain on Sunday!" type of non-attendance from getting refunded, but would accommodate those with a legitimate schedule conflict or health concern.
                    I think your plan is the best I’ve seen, but I think you’d get about 25% wanting refunds. And all who attend will have to sign Covid waivers. Walk-up crowd will be down.

                    I think in some thread I said I put the chances of a 500 this year at about 40%. I’m sticking with that. Cases are up in 26 states, and as someone noted, Indiana is one of those.

                    But if they run it I’ll be glued to the tube, as usual.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by CouchPilot View Post
                      Cases are up in 26 states, and as someone noted, Indiana is one of those.
                      That is not accurate. I keep hearing that, but it's simply not true:

                      https://www.coronavirus.in.gov/

                      Indiana daily cases.png
                      No weather forecasts are ever guaranteed, even if confidence level is high. Even a 99% probability will miss 1% of the time. That's the best anybody can do when predicting highly complex events.

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                      • #12
                        Indiana might not be the best of the best, but it's outperforming dozens of other states.

                        indiana hospitalizations.png

                        Indiana daily deaths.png
                        No weather forecasts are ever guaranteed, even if confidence level is high. Even a 99% probability will miss 1% of the time. That's the best anybody can do when predicting highly complex events.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Cases are going up (many places) but deaths are coming down. What's the X factor? First, more testing -- but new cases are exceeding the new testing, so we're not just finding more cases that would have been undetected otherwise. Second, more sunlight. There's some good evidence that COVID does not like vitamin D.

                          I am cautiously optimistic that the August date will hold, and I'm starting to be more worried about the possibility of legionaries disease from my hotel room than I am from getting covid at the 500. I will wear a mask, and while my eyes will be unprotected, I think the chances of a meaningful viral load from the race are probably ok.

                          I would really appreciate it everyone else wore a mask too, thanks.

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                          • #14
                            Well, I know that I will not be going this year. Or at least, not in August, as I have other plans and quite honestly have no desire to roll the dice on Covid. The other interesting question to me on any potential refund on request deal is: Can I still renew my seats and not lose any seniority time for 2021? I would hope that is an easy yes, you can still renew your same seats and no, you do not lose any seniority time...but it would be nice to get confirmation on things like that too.

                            Also, just not sure this year if I would even feel it is ok to put the tickets up on Stub Hub or something similar due to all the uncertainties.

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                            • #15
                              Originally posted by CouchPilot View Post

                              . And all who attend will have to sign Covid waivers. al.
                              Read the back of your ticket. No one is going to have sign any virus waivers. But it is likely that you will have your temperature taken when you enter the grounds. There are many, many, more entry lanes at the entrances now that were likely put in place for this contingency.

                              The race will likely run with fans who will make their own decisions as to whether or not to attend. If you have an underlying health condition then maybe you should skip it this year. Like stated earlier in this thread maybe IMS will off some kind of credit toward next year if you have health issues. We'll likely find out in the next several weeks.

                              But if the state of Indiana is still open for business at the end of August the 500 is going to run with fans who after the conclusion of the race will all be renewing their seats in the following weeks for the 2021 500 as usual.



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