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  • Championship Scenarios

    I posted this in the Point Standings thread, but thought with one race to go and what is at stake, that it deserved its own thread



    Power is up by 12 points and wins the tiebreaker based on race wins.

    Dario needs 13 more than Power to win (if he gains 12, they tie and Will wins via tiebreaker)


    Power not on pole and not leading most laps

    Power wins - game over
    Power P2 (40), Dario needs 53 (win (50) and take pole (1) and lead most laps (2)) = 53
    Power P3 (35), Dario needs 48 - Dario must win (50)
    Power P4 (32), Dario needs 45 - Dario must win (50)
    Power P5 (30), Dario needs 43 - Dario P2 (40) + pole (1) + laps (2) = 43 or Win=50
    Power P6 (28) - Dario needs 41 - Dario P2 (40) + pole or laps = 41 or 43 or Win=50
    Power P7 (26) - Dario needs 39 - Dario P2 (40) or Win=50
    Power P8 (24) - Dario needs 37 - Dario P3 (35) + Laps = 37, P2, or Win
    Power P9 (22) - Dario needs 35 - Dario P3=35 or P2 or P1
    Power P10 (20) - Dario needs 33 - P5=30 + pole + laps = 33, P4=32 + laps or pole = 33 or 35, P3=35, P2, or win
    Power P11 (19) - Dario needs 32
    Power P12 (18) - Dario needs 31
    Power P13 (17) - Dario needs 30
    Power P14 (16) - Dario needs 29
    Power P15 (15) - Dario needs 28
    Power P16 (14) - Dario needs 27
    Power P17 (13) - Dario needs 26
    Power P18-P24 (12) - Dario needs 25
    Power P25-DFL (10) - Dario needs 23

    Power ON pole (1 bonus point) but NOT leading most laps

    Power wins - game over
    Power P2 (41), Dario needs 54 = Game over
    Power P3 (36), Dario needs 49 - Dario must win (50)
    Power P4 (33), Dario needs 46 - Dario must win (50)
    Power P5 (31), Dario needs 44 - Dario must Win=50
    Power P6 (29) - Dario needs 42 - Dario P2 (40) + laps = 43 or Win=50
    Power P7 (27) - Dario needs 40 - Dario P2 (40) or Win=50
    Power P8 (25) - Dario needs 38 - Dario P2 (40) or Win=50
    Power P9 (23) - Dario needs 36 - Dario P3 + laps=37 or P2 or P1
    Power P10 (21) - Dario needs 34 - Dario needs P4 (32) + laps = 34, P3=35, P2, or win
    Power P11 (20) - Dario needs 33
    Power P12 (19) - Dario needs 32
    Power P13 (18) - Dario needs 31
    Power P14 (17) - Dario needs 30
    Power P15 (16) - Dario needs 29
    Power P16 (15) - Dario needs 28
    Power P17 (14) - Dario needs 27
    Power P18-P24 (13) - Dario needs 26
    Power P25-DFL (11) - Dario needs 24

    Power NOT on pole but leads most laps (2 bonus points)

    Power wins - game over
    Power P2 (42), Dario needs 55 = game Over
    Power P3 (37), Dario needs 50 - Dario must win (50)
    Power P4 (34), Dario needs 47 - Dario must win (50)
    Power P5 (32), Dario needs 45 - Dario must Win=50
    Power P6 (30) - Dario needs 43 - Dario must Win=50
    Power P7 (28) - Dario needs 41 - Dario P2 (40) + pole =41 or Win=50
    Power P8 (26) - Dario needs 39 - Dario P2, or Win
    Power P9 (24) - Dario needs 37 - Dario P2 or P1
    Power P10 (22) - Dario needs 35 - P3=35, P2, or win
    Power P11 (21) - Dario needs 34
    Power P12 (20) - Dario needs 33
    Power P13 (19) - Dario needs 32
    Power P14 (18) - Dario needs 31
    Power P15 (17) - Dario needs 30
    Power P16 (16) - Dario needs 29
    Power P17 (15) - Dario needs 28
    Power P18-P24 (14) - Dario needs 27
    Power P25-DFL (12) - Dario needs 25

    Power on pole and leading most laps (3 bonus points)

    Power wins - game over
    Power P2 (43), Dario needs 56 = Game Over
    Power P3 (37), Dario needs 51 = Game Over
    Power P4 (35), Dario needs 48 - Dario must win (50)
    Power P5 (33), Dario needs 46 - Dario must win (50)
    Power P6 (31) - Dario needs 44 - Dario must win (50)
    Power P7 (29) - Dario needs 42 - Dario must win (50)
    Power P8 (27) - Dario needs 40 - Dario P2 (40) or Win
    Power P9 (25) - Dario needs 38 - Dario P2 (40) or Win
    Power P10 (23) - Dario needs 36 - Dario P2 (40) or Win
    Power P11 (22) - Dario needs 35
    Power P12 (21) - Dario needs 34
    Power P13 (20) - Dario needs 33
    Power P14 (19) - Dario needs 32
    Power P15 (18) - Dario needs 31
    Power P16 (17) - Dario needs 30
    Power P17 (16) - Dario needs 29
    Power P18-P24 (15) - Dario needs 28
    Power P25-DFL (13) - Dario needs 26

    Point System

    Pole = 1 point
    Most laps led = 2 points

    Position Points
    1st 50
    2nd 40
    3rd 35
    4th 32
    5th 30
    6th 28
    7th 26
    8th 24
    9th 22
    10th 20
    11th 19
    12th 18
    13th 17
    14th 16
    15th 15
    16th 14
    17th 13
    18th-24th 12
    25th-33rd 10
    Last edited by vandele; 09-21-2010, 10:57 AM.
    My IMS seating map is now hosted at http://www.16thandgeorgetown.com and http://www.imsseating.blogspot.com

  • #2
    Thanks for posting. Interesting that Dario controls his own destiny going into the weekend, although he may not by race day.

    Comment


    • #3
      If I was Penske, I would have Helio be the rabbit and go full throttle from the get go.
      And keep Briscoe as a drafting partner for Will.
      Or have Briscoe on the alternate fuel strategy

      As for Dario, he is pretty much on his own.
      Dixon has kinda disappeared lately. Not much of help
      Rest in peace, Dan Wheldon 1978 - 2011

      Comment


      • #4
        Thanks, awesome post! Much more clear than Jack will be this week, although if he's smart he'll copy and past your post (and give you credit)!

        Comment


        • #5
          It could really help Penske if Will draws an early qualifying run and could get on Pole.....and if Helio and Briscoe happen to be after Dario, they can slow their runs a bit to give Will the bonus point.
          Proud fan of Helio Castroneves - 4 TIME INDIANAPOLIS 500 Winner 🏆

          Comment


          • #6
            Nice post, Vandele. A few other positions that are in play:

            3rd: Castroneves leads Dixon by only 4 points, so unless they both DNF, it's pretty much a matter of which one finishes higher. I note that Dixon hasn't posted a top-5 finish since Infineon.

            5th: Briscoe has 24 points on Hunter-Reay and 32 points on Kanaan. So if Briscoe finishes in the top-10, he clinches the position. They each have one win. If RHR hit the trifecta while Briscoe finished 11th, RHR would claim the position on the tiebreaker. If Kanaan hits the trifecta, he needs Briscoe to finish 10th or worse. If Kanaan finishes 2nd, he has to lead the most laps; Briscoe has to finish 20th or worse (and not win the pole), and RHR has to not win. Here's an interesting scenario: If Kanaan wins the race but scores no bonus points, RHR finishes 2nd and lead the most laps, and Briscoe finishes 12th, and none of the three wins the pole, they finish in a three-way tie at 468 points. If that happens, then the tiebreaker ranks them in order as Kanaan (two wins vs. for the others), Briscoe, and RHR; the latter two have to go down to fourth-place finishes to break the tie, with Briscoe coming out ahead 2 to 1.

            8th: Wheldon and Andretti are tied at 366 points; Wheldon has clinched all possible tiebreakers with his two second-place finishes. Justin Wilson is 17 points behind them, so (assuming Wheldon and Andretti both start at Homestead) he needs to finish 6th or better to have a chance of moving up. If Wilson hits the trifecta, he needs Wheldon and Andretti to finish 3rd or worse. (Wilson's best finish on an oval this year was a 5th at Indy). Danica is 22 points behind Wilson, so she needs to finish no worse than 4th if she wants to move into the top-10.

            Comment


            • #7
              Indycar.com put together a nifty graph of the possibilities

              http://www.indycar.com:8080/var/asse...sibilities.pdf
              My IMS seating map is now hosted at http://www.16thandgeorgetown.com and http://www.imsseating.blogspot.com

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by vandele View Post
                Indycar.com put together a nifty graph of the possibilities

                http://www.indycar.com:8080/var/asse...sibilities.pdf
                I like your break down better. Thanks for putting in the work! This... this is gonna be fun.

                Comment


                • #9
                  There is also the ROY still in play.
                  Lloyd has 18 points lead over Simona.
                  Rest in peace, Dan Wheldon 1978 - 2011

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    I must say that it has come down the last race, and usually the one who lead most of the year usually ends up winning. I tend to think the same thing will happen, but it is great that it continues to come down to the last weekend due to the diversity of the sport.
                    If you want to go fast, why would you want to drive a NASCAR Car?

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      ...and RHR still has a shot at breaking the Penske/Target grip on the Top 5.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Buellboy View Post
                        ...and RHR still has a shot at breaking the Penske/Target grip on the Top 5.
                        That's probably why Briscoe didn't get a drive through. Gotta maintain that status Quo. You know he's actually ahead of two Penske drivers on the road and street course standings. He really should be on a better team.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Since we are getting closer to the finale weekend, I thought it would be prudent to bump this back into view
                          My IMS seating map is now hosted at http://www.16thandgeorgetown.com and http://www.imsseating.blogspot.com

                          Comment

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