Bubble Watch

[Ydawg]

It is probably waaay too early - but what the heck, let's
start speculating about who will make the race/not make the
race. Based on practice speeds, I'd say the four drivers in
trouble right now are: Giebler, Lazier, Yasukawa, and Camara
(I have to believe that Hunter-Reay is going to pick up).
I'd be very surprised if it takes a 4-lap average over 220
to make the race - I'd say 219s right now. Lazier hits
the track tomorrow and may jump up to speed right away -
we will see. Simmons has looked good out of the box.
Of course, none really have their cars trimmed out today,
so it is a bit premature to base this on current practice
times. Nonetheless, Mario Moraes looked good today
and he is someone that I think alot of people had in
their "bubble watch". Bernoldi looked better today too, so
maybe Conquest is getting some things figured out.
Gotta think Marty and Milka will benefit from their teammates
good setups too when it comes to quals.

[morris4903]

Its probably a little early for this, we haven't seen every car yet, but I'll do an early analysis of this. Barring crashes and unseen misfortune, these cars will safely be in the field. These I think won't be in any bubble danger. Not in any particular order.

12. 06 Graham Rahal
13. 02 Justin Wilson
14. 15 Buddy Rice
15. 99 Townsend Bell
16. 5 Oriol Servia
17. 8 Will Power
18. 2 AJ Foyt IV
19. 22 Davey Hamilton
20. 16 Alex Lloyd
21. 17 Ryan Hunter-Reay
22. 14 Darren Manning
23. 18 Bruno Junqueira
24. 33 EJ Viso
25. 24 John Andretti

Here are the rest of the cars. 12 cars vying for 8 spots.

19 Mario Moraes
23 Milka Duno
25 Marty Roth
34 Jamie Camara
36 Enrique Bernoldi
41 Jeff Simmons
44 Max Papis
67 Sarah Fisher
88 Phil Giebler
91 Buddy Lazier
96 Mario Domingquez
98 Roger Yasukawa

My analysis: I think Roth and Duno get into the field because of their experienced teammates. If push comes to shove, Rice and John Andretti could jump into these cars and and give feedback to the these drivers.

My picks to miss the field
88 Geibler
98 Yasukawa
34 Jamie Camara
19 Moraes

[robespa]

I don't think Sarah will make the show.

She seems way behind in where she should be.

[SoDak_IndyFan]

I don't think Sarah will make the show.

She seems way behind in where she should be.

I guess you weren't paying attention last week.

morris needs to drop at least one name from that top 25 list and replace it with Sarah Fisher's.

[robespa]

I guess you weren't paying attention last week.

morris needs to drop at least one name from that top 25 list and replace it with Sarah Fisher's.

I guess I wasn't. Enlighten me

[Ydawg]

I guess I wasn't. Enlighten me

She was over 224 last weekend (tow?) in qual trim and had a multiple
laps (no tow) in the low 223s. They didn't think they could average
a mid-223, so didn't attempt. Today they were in race trim and honestly
a bit off pace. Conditions were pretty lousy today with the
wind.

I like morris4903's list. I'd move up Sarah and Simmons on
that list based on practice times. One thing for sure, if anyone
tears up equipment from now on, are going to have a very difficult
time. That could move someone out of the top catagory.

[morris4903]

Yeah I don't see Sarah missing the field, but since there is a small amount of doubt, I included her in the second list. Simmons needs a little more track time for me to be convinced. The other Foyt car hasn't been fast all month, so I'm skeptical at this point.

[slompappy]

as long as Milna Dunko gets bumped i'm happy