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  • New and Improved Coronavirus Thread

    Welcome to a re-start of the previous discussion, previously found here : https://www.trackforum.org/forum/com...40-coronavirus

    if your post is about the virus from a statistical, medical, or cultural perspective, it goes here. If it is about the civic response to the virus, it probably goes in the political thread about the virus in the political forum.

    Let me know if you need access to the political forum.
    There's really no such thing as Gary the Moose, Sybil.

  • #2
    Weird.
    No weather forecasts are ever guaranteed, even if confidence level is high. Even a 99% probability will miss 1% of the time. That's the best anybody can do when predicting highly complex events.

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    • #3
      Very.

      Comment


      • #4
        Thanks DIA it is about time for a fresh start on this topic.

        My office is having 1/2 staff come back starting Monday on 2 weeks rotations between here and home, they have all worked from home since mid-March (hard to believe it's been that long). It's interesting to hear their concerns, some have none and some are terrified. I suspect one person has not left their house in almost 4 months. Not a single active case in our country and it has been that way for over 3 weeks.

        Comment


        • #5
          I agree. It has been a very weird time these past months. But gladly it is mostly behind us. In our area of over a million people there are 130 infections at the moment Up from 51 last week.

          Comment


          • #6
            The previous thread was allowed to go on for a bit too long, was closed down, then reopened again. Perhaps a bit too soon.

            There's a lesson in here somewhere...
            “America is all about speed. Hot, nasty, badass speed.” - Eleanor Roosevelt

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            • #7
              Originally posted by Sweaty Teddy View Post
              The previous thread was allowed to go on for a bit too long, was closed down, then reopened again. Perhaps a bit too soon.

              There's a lesson in here somewhere...
              Lol

              Comment


              • #8
                Anchor for Dallas Evening News: The State of Texas today had to remove 3,484 cases from its Covid-19 positive case count, because the San Antonio Health Department was reporting “probable” cases for people never actually tested, as “confirmed” positive cases.- TDHS
                What other departments make this same mistake?

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by Sweaty Teddy View Post
                  The previous thread was allowed to go on for a bit too long, was closed down, then reopened again. Perhaps a bit too soon.

                  There's a lesson in here somewhere...
                  And a few people had to be masked.

                  Speaking of which, I just went to the gym, where they started a mask requirement for the entire building, except when you're actively exercising (but they do require you to sanitize every piece of equipment you use with a provided cleaning bottle and non-sweat towel).

                  Anyway, for those of us who are hard of hearing, it's impossible to hold a conversation, given the music and machine noises on top of masks, which muffle voices and hide lips.

                  We also stopped by Kroger, where masks aren't required until next week. I hope I don't have to ask an employee where something is.

                  I'll comply with all rules, and I'm not complaining as much as I am sharing thoughts about an inconvenience. I'm just saying that it's not always as simple as people make it out to be.
                  No weather forecasts are ever guaranteed, even if confidence level is high. Even a 99% probability will miss 1% of the time. That's the best anybody can do when predicting highly complex events.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by doitagain View Post
                    Welcome to a re-start of the previous discussion, previously found here : https://www.trackforum.org/forum/com...40-coronavirus

                    if your post is about the virus from a statistical, medical, or cultural perspective, it goes here. If it is about the civic response to the virus, it probably goes in the political thread about the virus in the political forum.

                    Let me know if you need access to the political forum.
                    So, serious questions that deserve full attention and a serious answer. If you don't fully understand the questions, ask for clarification instead of just dismissing them.

                    What if we want to analyze and evaluate civic response in a non-partisan way, but we don't want to weed through all the partisan silliness plaguing the internet and the political board here?

                    Is there a place for those of us who can handle a discussion that might spark a political reaction from a small number of people who can't handle it, if our thoughts are non-partisan, and only marginally politically related (if that)?

                    Do you understand what I'm getting at?
                    No weather forecasts are ever guaranteed, even if confidence level is high. Even a 99% probability will miss 1% of the time. That's the best anybody can do when predicting highly complex events.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Yep. You're out of luck.

                      But the political forum has the same rules as here. We don't get many complaints.

                      I'll start being less forgiving of the give-and-take on the political board, if you'd like, just for you. I'd love to have your political posts there, and I have allowed more than I personally prefer, just to accommodate the "community standard".

                      For example, that is why Mopars is still posting even though he is "on vacation".

                      Now, let's get this thread back on topic. You have other threads ongoing for feedback.
                      There's really no such thing as Gary the Moose, Sybil.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by doitagain View Post
                        Yep. You're out of luck.

                        But the political forum has the same rules as here. We don't get many complaints.
                        I hear complaints all the time about the political board.

                        But I guess I'll go see how much (little?) it's changed since I've left. I'll take access for a trial period, because there's far more restriction here than needed.

                        It's a bad decision to force non-partisan discussion there for those who have seen more than their fill, but it's your decision to make.
                        No weather forecasts are ever guaranteed, even if confidence level is high. Even a 99% probability will miss 1% of the time. That's the best anybody can do when predicting highly complex events.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Jim Wilke View Post
                          Anchor for Dallas Evening News: The State of Texas today had to remove 3,484 cases from its Covid-19 positive case count, because the San Antonio Health Department was reporting “probable” cases for people never actually tested, as “confirmed” positive cases.- TDHS
                          What other departments make this same mistake?
                          This seems to be happening far too often.
                          "If you don't do it this year, you'll be another year older when you do"

                          http://davidm.smugmug.com/

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Jim Wilke View Post
                            Anchor for Dallas Evening News: The State of Texas today had to remove 3,484 cases from its Covid-19 positive case count, because the San Antonio Health Department was reporting “probable” cases for people never actually tested, as “confirmed” positive cases.- TDHS
                            What other departments make this same mistake?
                            Somebody on Twitter (in Ohio, maybe?) created quite the discussion when they explained what their mom was going through. She's elderly and in the hospital, but she keeps taking COVID tests daily and keeps coming back positive each time. The Twitter poster had somebody with access check the positive case data, and they found the mom was shown in the data 15 times as a "positive case" (even though it was a single case). This was verified by a guest I saw on a TV news show last night.

                            I'm not suggesting that numbers are inflated by 15x, but it wasn't exactly an unusual circumstance. How many "positive cases" are merely positive tests, with duplicates? I don't know the answer, but one has to wonder whether it's enough to inflate the numbers beyond a statistical anomaly.
                            No weather forecasts are ever guaranteed, even if confidence level is high. Even a 99% probability will miss 1% of the time. That's the best anybody can do when predicting highly complex events.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              If it's on Twitter it must be true, so...
                              There's really no such thing as Gary the Moose, Sybil.

                              Comment

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