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The morning after...

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  • The morning after...

    The wicked witch, if not dead, is gone. Mubarak, the latest cause of all the ills in the ME has fled Cairo. Crowds danced in the streets. Talking heads assure us that the “democratic 'revolution in Egypt is, save for a little smoothing the edges here and there, a done deal. But, a bothersome thought lingers in the back catacombs of my curmudgeonly brain. The military is in charge. The recent made for television 24 hour news outlets drama was in essence, a military coup, not a democratic revolution.

    The current wisdom seems to be that Defense Minister Hussein Tantawi will, with the aide of his generals, guide Egypt to the promised land; a democratic, secular society. Maybe, maybe not. Power does strange things to individuals. Who is to say for certain he, or one of the generals, won't decide that he is best equipped to lead that nation. Generals and Colonels in that part of the world, along with Latin America, have a history of such activity. Egypt has never had a democracy, not in 5,000 years of history.

    Is it logical to, in a cavalier manner, assume that a country with no political experience other than strongman (Cleopatra excepted in a gender sense) leadership will immediately accept a foreign form of government? To me, believing in such an outcome is a bit on the Pollyanna side.

    It is also proclaimed by some that the Egyptian military will not accept radical Muslim leadership such as the Muslim Brotherhood. How do we know that? Radical Islam is on the move throughout the world. It even found it’s way into the Army of the United States resulting in the terrorist killings at Ft Hood. By most all accounts the Brotherhood, outside the military, is the most organized political presence in Egypt. They are, by respected accounts, bad guys.

    How many of the conscripted soldiers in the military are sympathetic to radical Islam? Do we know? Of course not. And, is it beyond the realm of probability that more than one general grade officer is sympathetic to the influence of the Muslim Brotherhood? I doubt it. After all, it was the Brotherhood who killed Sadat.

    And now we see more movements of ‘revolution’ in the Middle East, most recently, Yemen, the assumed hideout of Anwar al-Awlaki,. Recall he is associated with Major Hassan. Algeria and the Saudis are beginning to see a similar Egyptian style movement. So what are we to make of all this?

    Will Egyptians hold hands with the military and gleefully skip down the Yellow Brick Road to democratic bliss? Or will the ghost of holy men or Colonels past be resurrected and re-introduce a new tyrant, either in the mold of Ayatollah Khomeini or Nasser. We’ll see won’t we.
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    • The morning after...
      by hdolan
      The wicked witch, if not dead, is gone. Mubarak, the latest cause of all the ills in the ME has fled Cairo. Crowds danced in the streets. Talking heads assure us that the “democratic 'revolution in Egypt is, save for a little smoothing the edges here and there, a done deal. But, a bothersome thought lingers in the back catacombs of my curmudgeonly brain. The military is in charge. The recent made for television 24 hour news outlets drama was in essence, a military coup, not a democratic revolution. ...
      02-12-2011, 09:20 PM
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